Economics Pt. 2: China’s Coming Economic Depression 3/20/19

China is looking like it will be the next part of the globe affected by a housing bubble as well as a few other issues that they are trying to hide from the world when it comes to their economy.

Firstly, China’s housing bubble has been growing, as housing development, led by the municipalities leadership in the areas of the continued development, continue to grow even though the building plans are usually based on population and economic data provided by local authorities who have been shown to over-inflate their numbers to increase funding [1].

This, along with the growing real estate bubble due to the lack of Chinese purchasing the new housing being developed, will inevitably destroy the Chinese economy, as Housing is one of the main revenue streams for the Chinese GDP:

25% of the country’s GDP comes from construction, and 80% of the nation’s wealth is in domestic property holdings. That’s $65T, nearly double the size of the economies of every G7 nation combined.
The market has been kept afloat through China’s massive “shadow banking” system, itself such a systemic risk that the Chinese government has been forced to crack down on it. Now, China’s massive, blue-chip property developers have had their debt downrated to CCC and are struggling to issue new bonds — Moody’s rates the debt of 51 out of 61 Chinese property companies as “junk.”
China has 65 million vacant residences, but prices remain stubbornly high, even in “tier-two” cities like Jinan, where a 1000sqft apartment costs RMB2M, while a worker may only earn RMB6,000/month [2].

This data, along with evidence that shows that Chinese Companies are currently attempting to save at higher rates due to the slowing of the economy at levels unseen for over 30 years [3], meaning less money being pumped into the Chinese Economy, and explains the reason why China has been hiding it’s recent Economic Data [4].

This hidden data helps in hiding China’s shortfalls, as well as is an attempt to gain more economic power across the globe by positioning itself as a major economy. While China has been putting out false GDP numbers, their debt has been racking up, building to Credit Bubble proportions, and will likely be another means of destruction to the countries economy [5].

Sources

Source 1: https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3002219/almost-one-third-chinese-cities-are-shrinking-city-planners

Source 2: https://boingboing.net/2019/02/16/systemic-risk-2.html

Source 3: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-companies-outlook/asia-firms-spend-less-and-save-more-as-china-economy-slows-idUSKCN1R008P

Source 4: https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/in-search-of-real-data-on-chinas-economy/

Source 5: https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/new-study-shines-light-literally-on-chinas-and-russias-fake-gdp-data/

Economics Pt. 1: No Savings, Economies on the Brink of Disaster 3/20/19

About a fifth of Americans have no money tucked away for unexpected costs.
About 21% of working Americans said they aren’t saving any money at all, Bankrate found in a survey. Among those who are saving, a majority are putting away less than 10% of their income.
Over the past several decades, household savings in the US have been trending downward. By the Bureau of Labour Statistics’ measure, Americans were saving 7.6% of disposable income in December. Before the 1980s, that rate had mostly been in the double digits.

For 1/5 of all Americans, roughly 65,140,000 people, there is no leverage for any unexpected financial distresses [1]. This trend, similar to the one in the UK where one in four adults have no savings, approximately 16,510,000 people [2], is a dangerous turn for the global economy when it takes place in two of the most influential nations driving global production.

All this, while the distribution of income has continuously increased in going to those with the most wealth within the United States [3], even though the total income for all persons within the United States continued to grow steadily since the 1990’s [4], and similar has been taking place within the UK [5].

Something needs to be changed, as these are warning signs of an impending recession that will affect the entire world fiscally.

The United States seems likely to have another Recession come up within the next few years, as predicted by Economists based on the long expansion of the economic growth experienced by the US since the 2009 Recession that hurt the economy and that the growth eventually leads to a fall, since economic trends are never a straight line and continually raise and lower [6].

More specifically, the slowing of interest rate growth vs. interest rates is likely to spur the Recession, with one expert stating the likelihood within the coming year of having a recession is up to 30% [7].

Sources

Source 1: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/americans-with-zero-savings-at-20-2019-3

Source 2: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/british-adults-savings-none-quarter-debt-cost-living-emergencies-survey-results-a8265111.html

Source 3: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/is-increasing-income-inequality-a-myth

Source 4: https://www.statista.com/statistics/216756/us-personal-income/

Source 5: https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/scale-economic-inequality-uk

Source 6: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/13/economy-at-very-real-risk-of-entering-recession-in-late-2020-ucla.html

Source 7: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuapollard/2019/03/15/recession-watch-2019-outlook-not-so-good/#4b2688e92fc2

Sandy Hook Lawsuit Facts 3/19/19

Many news outlets are pointing out that the CT State Supreme Court has now allowed Gun Manufacturers to be sued for any killed by their weapons, but is that the true story?

The case is no longer focused specifically on the incident itself, as there is a federal law, passed by the NRA, that does not allow for the lawsuit of gun manufacturers in a shooting event, even one as massively damaging as the Sandy Hook Shooting [1].

What the law does allow, however, is the right for the parents to sue based on the companies advertizing methods.

In the lawsuit, the families seized upon the marketing for the AR-15-style Bushmaster used in the 2012 attack, which invoked the violence of combat and used slogans like “Consider your man card reissued.”
Lawyers for the families argued that those messages reflected a deliberate effort to appeal to troubled young men like Adam Lanza, the 20-year-old who charged into the elementary school and killed 26 people, including 20 first graders, in a spray of gunfire. The attack traumatized the nation and made Newtown, Conn., the small town where it happened, a rallying point in the broader debate over gun violence.
In the 4-3 ruling, the justices agreed with a lower court judge’s decision to dismiss most of the claims raised by the families, but also found that the sweeping federal protections did not prevent the families from bringing a lawsuit based on wrongful marketing claims [2].

Sources

Source 1: https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/10/06/446348616/fact-check-are-gun-makers-totally-free-of-liability-for-their-behavior

Source 2: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/14/nyregion/sandy-hook-supreme-court.html

The Treasonous Representative: Steve King’s Civil War Post 3/19/19

Steve King, Representative of Iowa, has possibly committed treason with his latest Facebook post.

The Representative, best known for his racist statements including his recent gaffe of asking why the terms White Supremacist and White Nationalist were offensive, as well as his at least 17 year history of racist statements [1] which led to his removal from all committee assignments by Congress.

Now, his post has openly advocated for a second Civil War, including references to bloodshed via bullets.

The post, deleted soon after it was posted, was put up on his Official Facebook Account.

“This is treason,” said Richard Painter, who served as the chief ethics lawyer in President George W. Bush’s administration, on Twitter. “Steve King should be expelled from the House immediately.”
Responding to Painter, Harvard Law professor Laurence Tribe modified his criticism: King “isn’t actually COMMITTING treason, but he is fomenting and inciting it. Ample reason to expel him.” [2]

Sources

Source 1: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/15/us/politics/steve-king-offensive-quotes.html

Source 2: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/03/18/steve-king-posts-meme-warning-that-red-states-have-trillion-bullets-event-civil-war/?utm_term=.667ead6e3919

Congress Attempts to Override Trump’s Emergency Declaration 3/19/19

Beginning on February 26th, the House passed a measure to overturn Trump’s Emergency Declaration, voting 245-182, just 11 days after the declaration was made [1].

Eventually, the measure was moved to the Senate, where on March 14th, 12 Republicans voted for the measure to be moved forward, with a vote of 59-41, passing the Senate but not within a veto-proof majority [2].

From there, Trump announced his intentions of Vetoing the measure, and did so the following day [3].

Now, Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, is expected to challenge his Veto in the House, publicly stating that she’d do so by having an override vote take place on March 26th [4].

In this instance, Nancy Pelosi’s vote on March 26th is unlikely to pass, as a Supermajority of 2/3 is needed to override a Presidential Veto, meaning 67 members of the Senate or 290 members of the House, which neither Congressional House met during the vote.

The Emergency on the Southern Border, however, isn’t an emergency at all [5], and will inevitably be forgotten after Trump leaves office.

There is a long process needed to get the land on the southern border, requiring Eminent Domain utilization by the Federal Government, in which the government can seize private land for their own use. This was done during the W. Bush and Obama Presidencies to allow for the Secure Fence Act, against the wishes of many who owned the land, which put the current Border Fence we have lining the most accessible portions of the United State’s Southern Border that is there today [6].

Sources

Source 1: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/431722-house-votes-to-overturn-trump-emergency-declaration

Source 2: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-renews-veto-threat-as-senate-prepares-to-rebuke-him-on-national-emergency/2019/03/14/2efbea36-4647-11e9-aaf8-4512a6fe3439_story.html

Source 3: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/15/us/politics/trump-veto-national-emergency.html

Source 4: https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2019/03/16/pelosi-override-trump-vetos-congressional-national-emergency/

Source 5: https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/03/13/donald-trump-national-emergency-border-225781

Source 6: https://www.texastribune.org/2017/12/14/border-land-grab-government-abused-power-seize-property-fence/

Brexit Delay Inevitable 3/14/19

Brexit was scheduled by Prime Minister Theresa May to take place on March 29th, but that’s no longer in the cards.

The British Parliament has voted overwhelmingly, 412-202, to seek a delay for a now-unspecified amount of time [1].

At the same time, Parliament voted against a second referendum, 85-334, but the reason for such a loss may be due to the timing, as Parliament is focused on finding a new timeline at the moment. It’s also possible that this number will change as faith in Theresa May’s successful Brexit dealings wane [2].

Sources

Source 1: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/brexit-vote-delay-and-second-referendum/2019/03/14/d97ffdd8-4405-11e9-94ab-d2dda3c0df52_story.html

Source 2: https://www.vox.com/world/2019/3/14/18265393/brexit-vote-second-referendum-parliament

Abortion: Facts from Fiction 3/14/19

The Abortion Debate is a long held one in the US, but is predicated on many falseified statistics and information, so we’ve copied some statistics from doctors in the field.

The phrase “late-term abortion” is medically inaccurate and has no clinical meaning. In science and medicine, it’s essential to use language precisely. In pregnancy, to be “late term” means to be past 41 weeks gestation, or past a patient’s due date. Abortions do not occur in this time period, so the phrase is contradictory.
…
According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, abortions after 21 weeks make up less than 1.3% of all abortions in the United States. This means that abortions that occur beyond 24 weeks make up less than 1% of all procedures.
…
There are many reasons why women may need to access abortion later in pregnancy, including maternal health endangerment, diagnosis of fetal abnormalities or restrictive laws delaying earlier access to abortion care. Those exceptionally rare cases that happen after 24 weeks are often because a fetus has a condition that cannot be treated and will never be able to survive — regardless of the gestational age or trimester.
It’s this exact reason that it’s nonsensical to legislate these cases: Nobody arrives at the decision to have an abortion after 24 weeks carelessly. Rather, it’s the rare case of rapidly decompensating maternal heart disease or a delayed diagnosis of anencephaly, where the fetus forms without a complete brain or skull, that bring people to these decisions.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/06/health/late-term-abortion-explainer/

New Statehood Proposal for D.C. and a possible Future for Puerto Rico 3/14/19

Washington D.C. is an area that denies a common American Tenet:
No Taxation Without Representation.

Democrats want to change that.

A new Bill, H.R. 51, is a Bill advocating for the addition of Washington D.C. as a new, 51st state, giving the population of somewhere around 715,000 people the right to have Representatives and Congresspersons, thus giving them a voice in the Nation through representation [1].

The full process requires a Joint Resolution after the writing of a new State Constitution, then the signature of the President [2], which is unlikely to happen unless there is a new Democratic President in the Oval Office come 2021, as the state will almost certainly vote Democratic.

When it comes to Puerto Rico, it seems likely that Statehood will also be on the table in 2020. It’s been a point to visit the island for a few 2020 Democratic Candidates, such as Julian Castro and Elizabeth Warren, while Bernie Sanders named Carmen Yulín Cruz, the mayor of San Juan, as a co-chair to his campaign [3].

It seems the 2020 election will majorly dictate the future of America and who is in it.

Sources

Source 1: https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/democrats-push-to-make-washington-dc-the-fifty-first-state

Source 2: https://www.abc10.com/article/news/local/how-do-new-states-become-part-of-the-us/103-448157125

Source 3: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-puertorico/puerto-rico-governor-says-2020-democrats-must-support-statehood-idUSKCN1QB2A4

Senate Votes to End Support in Yemen 3/13/19

The Senate has voted to end support of the Saudi’s coalition in the war in Yemen, for the first time invoking the War Powers Resolution to stop a foreign conflict.

The Trump White House has threatened to veto the resolution, which passed the Senate 54-46, a number that is not enough to override a veto, meaning there is still an uphill battle to ensure it’s passage.

This is not the first time that the Senate has passed a bill to end the US’ involvement in Yemen, having taken a vote and passing it in December before it was blocked from being voted on in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives [1].

This is a positive move by the United States, not just for removing their support of the Saudi family who killed Jamal Khashoggi [2], focusing on moving away from the need to be involved in every global conflict via military might.

In the words of the former Deputy and Acting Secretary of State Bill Burns, who served during both George W. Bush and Barack Obama, from his book (as summarized by Tommy Vietor of Pod Save the World):

Foreign Service Examiner – “What’s the biggest challenge in American Foreign Policy Today”
Bill Burns – “I think it’s us. After Vietnam (and now Iraq and the Middle East) I think we need to do a better job of determining what we can solve, and what we can manage.” [3]

Sources

Source 1: https://www.apnews.com/784139fedb1f4940bc39f33b5ffa2930

Source 2: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/13/state-department-calls-jamal-khashoggis-death-human-rights-violation.html

Source 3: https://crooked.com/podcast/antisemitism-the-nsa-khashoggi-then-fmr-dep-secretary-of-state-bill-burns/

Backlog of Rape Kits in NY lead to over 1,000 arrests 3/13/19

Kits that sat for up to 15 years and went untested were finally forced into testing by the
Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Assistance and Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus R. Vance Jr.

There is an estimated 155,000 other kits that have gone untested to date, and some of the kits that were tested with a positive match ended up leading to no arrests, due to the
Statute of Limitations running out.

Languishing evidence in over 100,000 sexual assault cases around the country has been sent for DNA testing with money from a New York prosecutor and federal authorities, spurring over 1,000 arrests and hundreds of convictions in three years, officials say.
It’s estimated that another 155,000 or more sex assault evidence kits still await testing, and thousands of results have yet to be linked to suspects. Many who have been identified can’t be prosecuted because of legal time limits and other factors.

This is an issue that pervades across the United States and laws need to be amended to ensure Police Stations are doing their job and testing these kits when they arrive.

Source: https://apnews.com/c87e200f99844d649788e90b588a0d49